PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up 5–6bp across the curve this morning, with the move led by the long end amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.
Gilt yields are notably higher so far today; expect a clear upward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.410% (+3bp) — Short end firmer, but less aggressive than the long end.
- → 10y: 4.960% (+5bp) — Belly of the curve up in line with broader move.
- → 30y: 5.634% (+5bp) — Long end continues to lead, reflecting inflation and supply concerns.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.23% (unch from current)
- → 5y: predicted 5.52% (+1bp from current)
- → 10y: predicted 5.98% (unch from current)
- → 20y: predicted 6.52% (+1bp from current)
- → 30y: predicted 6.60% (+1bp from current)
- → 50y: predicted 6.39% (+1bp from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → UK gilt yields are rising as political uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns, especially linked to the Iran war and oil price surge, weigh on markets (Bloomberg).
- → No UK economic data released so far today to counter the move.
CALENDAR
RELEASES SO FAR TODAY
No data released so far today.
STILL DUE TODAY
- → 15:00 — USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.05M — unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 00:01 — GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: 0.80%
- → Tue 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.40%
- → Tue 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.60%
- → Tue 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.60%
- → Tue 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.40%
A brisk start to the week, with rates on the move and no UK data yet to steady the ship.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you want calm, try a Monday in August, not this one.