PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 5–8bp increases across the curve as Middle East tensions and surging oil prices drive a pronounced move.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB AM fix: rates up 5–8bp across all maturities, led by renewed market volatility and higher gilt yields amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.
PWLB rates surge as oil shock and Iran conflict rattle markets
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.23% | +5bp |
| 3y | 5.38% | +7bp |
| 5y | 5.51% | +6bp |
| 10y | 5.98% | +7bp |
| 25y | 6.58% | +7bp |
| 50y | 6.38% | +8bp |
Parallel shift higher: 5–8bp up across all maturities, with the long end leading.
WHAT MOVED
- → Broad-based surge — All key maturities rose 5–8bp, with the largest moves at the long end (50y +8bp).
- → No divergence — The move is a parallel upward shift, not a curve twist.
CONTEXT
- → Oil price shock — Crude prices have surged after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fuelling inflation fears.
- → Geopolitical risk — Persistent Middle East conflict is driving volatility across global bond markets, with UK gilts and PWLB rates moving in tandem.
- → No UK data yet — No significant UK economic releases so far today; market moves are news-driven.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
No data released so far today.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales: Forecast 4.05M (Prev 3.98M) — unlikely to move gilts directly, but may affect global risk sentiment.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 12 May 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.40%
- → Tue 12 May 13:30: USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.60%
- → Thu 14 May 07:00: GBP GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 1.40%
- → Thu 14 May 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.20%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — This morning’s PWLB reset brings a clear warning: rates are up 5–8bp across the curve, with the 50-year now at 6.38% and 10-year at 5.98%. The move is broad-based and driven by global market nerves around the Iran conflict and oil price spike, not domestic data. If you are watching for the next reset, be aware that volatility remains high and the market is acutely sensitive to further geopolitical headlines.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing rising faster than rates is the price of a barrel of Brent.