PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

14 May 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve; expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Gilt yields are down 2–4bp at all key tenors so far today; PWLB predictions point to a minor rate cut at the next reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.450% (-2bp) — Mild softening at the front end.
→ 10y: 5.027% (-3bp) — Belly also drifting lower.
→ 30y: 5.700% (-4bp) — Long end leading the move down.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.24% (-2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.58% (-2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 6.05% (-3bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.58% (-3bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.66% (-3bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.44% (-3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK Q1 GDP growth (0.6% QoQ, 1.1% YoY) beat forecasts, but the gilt market is focused on ongoing political uncertainty and global risk sentiment.
→ News flow highlights political instability and bond market nerves, but no single clear data driver for today's modest move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel — Actual: 1.10% vs Forecast: 0.80% vs Previous: 1.0% (HIGH) — Above expectations; signals resilience.
→ GDP MoM — Actual: 0.30% vs Forecast: -0.20% vs Previous: 0.40% (HIGH) — Stronger than forecast; positive for growth outlook.
→ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel — Actual: 0.60% vs Forecast: 0.60% vs Previous: 0.20% (HIGH) — In line with expectations; confirms steady expansion.
→ Industrial Production MoM — Actual: -0.20% vs Forecast: -0.30% vs Previous: 0.30% (MEDIUM) — Slightly better than forecast, but still negative.
→ Manufacturing Production MoM — Actual: 1.20% vs Forecast: -0.20% vs Previous: -0.20% (MEDIUM) — Strong rebound; supportive for the sector.
→ Business Investment QoQ Prel — Actual: 0.70% vs Forecast: 1.10% vs Previous: -2.90% (MEDIUM) — Below forecast, but a turnaround from last quarter.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 12:00 — NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — Forecast: 0.20% — Unlikely to move gilts before 12:30 reset.
→ 13:30 — US Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.50% — May influence global risk tone, but after PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Tue 07:00 — UK Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.30%
→ Wed 07:00 — UK Inflation Rate YoY — Previous: 3.30%
→ Wed 19:00 — US FOMC Minutes

A steady start to the day; keep an eye on political headlines and upcoming data for any shift in tone.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as stable as the curve.