PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset this morning with a uniform 3bp drop across all maturities, reflecting a modest parallel move lower.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates down 3bp across the curve, mirroring a modest move in gilts after UK GDP data surprised to the upside.
PWLB nudges lower as UK growth beats forecasts
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.26% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.45% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.60% | -3bp |
| 10y | 6.08% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.68% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.47% | -3bp |
Parallel 3bp drop across all maturities; no curve shape change.
WHAT MOVED
- → Uniform move — All key tenors down 3bp, with no change in curve slope.
CONTEXT
- → UK GDP (Q1 prelim) — 0.6% QoQ (forecast: 0.6%, prev: 0.2%), 1.1% YoY (forecast: 0.8%, prev: 1.0%): above expectations, confirming a stronger start to the year.
- → Manufacturing output — 1.2% MoM (forecast: -0.2%, prev: -0.2%): a sharp rebound, supporting the positive GDP surprise.
- → Newsflow — No material macro or BoE news impacting gilts this morning; market focus remains on economic data.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel — 0.6% (forecast: 0.6%, prev: 0.2%): in line with expectations, but YoY beat.
- → GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel — 1.1% (forecast: 0.8%, prev: 1.0%): stronger than forecast.
- → Manufacturing Production MoM — 1.2% (forecast: -0.2%, prev: -0.2%): well above expectations.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 12:00 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — Forecast: 0.2% (prev: 0.6%)
- → 13:30 USD Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.5% (prev: 1.7%)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 19 May 07:00: GBP Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.3%
- → Wed 20 May 07:00: GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Previous: 3.3%
- → Wed 20 May 19:00: USD FOMC Minutes
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 3bp lower across all maturities this morning, following a solid UK GDP print and a sharp rebound in manufacturing. This is a modest move, not a major shift. If you are considering transactions ahead of the next reset, be aware that the curve is unchanged in shape and the market is responding mainly to positive economic data. Monitor the midday reset if US retail sales or further UK releases shift sentiment.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council budget spreadsheet.