PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB rates rose 3–4bp across the curve at the PM reset, led by political uncertainty and a sharp move in gilts.
PWLB fixed rates set after 12:15 on 15 May 2026 rose by 3–4bp across most maturities, with the 10y now at 6.15% (+3bp); the move reflects a pronounced sell-off in gilts amid UK political turmoil and global inflation concerns.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.29% (+1bp)
- → 3y: 5.51% (+2bp)
- → 5y: 5.67% (+3bp)
- → 10y: 6.15% (+3bp)
- → 25y: 6.75% (+4bp)
- → 50y: 6.53% (+3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end firmer: 1y up +1bp, 3y up +2bp.
- → Belly and long end: 5y to 50y up +3–4bp, with 25y and 30y both +4bp.
- → Curve: Moves are parallel, with no part of the curve spared.
CONTEXT
- → UK political instability: Gilt yields and sterling have both slumped as markets react to Andy Burnham’s bid to challenge Keir Starmer, raising concerns over future fiscal policy.
- → Global inflation fears: Persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and hawkish central bank rhetoric are driving bond yields higher worldwide.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tuesday 07:00: UK labour market data (Unemployment Rate forecast 5.10%, Average Earnings 3.80%) — high impact for rates.
- → Wednesday 07:00: UK CPI inflation (YoY forecast 2.60%) — next major test for the curve.
A turbulent session for gilts and PWLB rates, with political headlines and inflation worries firmly in the driving seat.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re not double-checking your rate sheet today, you’re braver than I am.