PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields are sharply higher across the curve (+8 to +15bp), with political turmoil and fiscal concerns driving the move; expect a material upward reset at 12:30.
Gilts are selling off hard this morning, pointing to a significant upward shift in PWLB rates at the upcoming PM reset.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 5y: 4.667% (+12bp) — Front-end under heavy pressure.
- → 10y: 5.136% (+13bp) — Belly sharply higher, matching short end.
- → 30y: 5.807% (+15bp) — Long end leads, curve bear-steepening.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.28% (unch)
- → 5y: predicted 5.67% (+3bp)
- → 10y: predicted 6.15% (+3bp)
- → 20y: predicted 6.68% (+4bp)
- → 30y: predicted 6.76% (+4bp)
- → 50y: predicted 6.53% (+3bp)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → UK political instability — Multiple sources cite heightened market concern over a potential Burnham challenge to Starmer and the risk of looser fiscal policy, driving gilt yields higher.
- → Global inflation and energy — Ongoing elevated oil prices and US inflation concerns are adding to upward pressure on yields.
- → Sterling weakness — The pound has fallen to a one-month low, compounding the sell-off in gilts.
CALENDAR
RELEASES SO FAR TODAY
No data released so far today.
STILL DUE TODAY
- → 12:00 — NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — Forecast: 0.20% — Low impact, unlikely to affect 12:30 reset.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 07:00 — UK Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.10%
- → Wed 07:00 — UK Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.60%
- → Wed 19:00 — US FOMC Minutes
Markets are firmly focused on UK political risk and the fiscal outlook; expect volatility to persist into next week's key data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you need me, I'll be counting basis points and brewing strong coffee.