Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.264% (+1bp) — Slight uptick at the front end.
• → 10y: 4.844% (unch) — Belly stable.
• → 30y: 5.542% (-1bp) — Long end marginally softer.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.08% (-1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.42% (unch from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.88% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.41% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.50% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.27% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → Car Production YoY — Actual: -0.70% vs Forecast: 14% vs Previous: -0.80% — (Medium) — Weaker than forecast, but low direct relevance for gilts.

Still due today

• → 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — Forecast: 2.0% — May influence global rates if surprise is large.
• → 13:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.30% — US inflation data; could affect sentiment if notably off forecast.
• → 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: 3.50%
• → 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending MoM — Forecast: 0.40%/0.50%

Next 48 hours

• → Fri 07:45 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.60%
• → Fri 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.20%
• → Fri 13:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.90%

PWLB rates at the next reset are set for only minor tweaks; no strong directional cues from gilts or data so far.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all days were this straightforward.