PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with 2–4bp increases across all key maturities and no major divergence along the curve.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates rose 2–4bp at the AM reset, reflecting a modest upward shift in gilt yields amid a quiet UK data and news backdrop.
PWLB edges up as markets mark time — modest rise, no fireworks
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.09% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.27% | +4bp |
| 5y | 5.42% | +4bp |
| 10y | 5.89% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.50% | +4bp |
| 50y | 6.28% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift: all key maturities up 3–4bp, no material curve twist.
What Moved
- → Broad-based rise — 3–4bp increases across the curve, with no single maturity standing out.
- → No significant curve shape change — The move is parallel, not a steepening or flattening.
Context
- → UK data flow is light — Only car production (-0.7% YoY, well below 14% forecast) released so far, with little direct impact on gilts.
- → No major UK macro news — News flow is dominated by international headlines and sector-specific stories, none materially moving gilts this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Car Production YoY: -0.70% (Forecast: 14%, Previous: -0.80%) — Weak, but not a gilt mover.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est: Forecast: 2.0%
- → 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM: Forecast: 0.30%
- → 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders MoM: Forecast: 3.50%
- → 13:30 USD Personal Income/Spending MoM: Forecasts: 0.40% / 0.50%
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 2026-05-29 07:45: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.60%
- → Fri 2026-05-29 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.20%
- → Fri 2026-05-29 13:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.90%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates nudged up 2–4bp at the AM fix, with no single maturity standing out and no curve distortion. This is a modest parallel move, so the next reset will depend on how US data lands this afternoon and any subsequent gilt reaction. For now, the market is marking time, with no UK-specific catalyst in play.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the coffee in the committee room.