Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.212% (-2bp) — Modest front-end rally.
• → 10y: 4.805% (-1bp) — Belly marginally firmer.
• → 30y: 5.509% (-1bp) — Long end steady to slightly lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.04% (-2bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.36% (-2bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.84% (-2bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.38% (-2bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.47% (-2bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.24% (-2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Actual: data not available vs Forecast: data not available vs Previous: data not available — (Medium) — Housing data can influence rate expectations, but no figures provided.
• → GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Actual: data not available vs Forecast: data not available vs Previous: data not available — (Medium) — No figures provided.
• → GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech — Actual: n/a vs Forecast: n/a vs Previous: n/a — (Medium) — Bailey's remarks can move gilts, but no market-moving headlines noted.

Still due today

• → 13:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.90% — May influence broader rates sentiment but unlikely to directly affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Next 48 hours

• → Mon 15:00 — USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 52.6
• → Tue 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.40%
• → Fri 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
• → Fri 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 96K

A calm session so far; the curve is steady and the reset looks set for a minor downward tweak.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all days were this straightforward.