PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with a modest parallel move down across the curve following softer European inflation data and a quiet UK macro backdrop.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates down 3–5bp across all maturities, tracking a mild rally in gilts after eurozone inflation came in below expectations.
PWLB edges down as euro inflation undershoots, UK data stays quiet
PWLB snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.06% | -4bp |
| 3y | 5.23% | -5bp |
| 5y | 5.38% | -5bp |
| 10y | 5.86% | -4bp |
| 25y | 6.48% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.26% | -3bp |
Mild parallel shift lower across the curve, with short and medium tenors down 4–5bp, long end down 3bp.
What moved
- → Front and belly — 1y to 7y maturities fell 4–5bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates slipped 3bp, mirroring the broader rally but with slightly less momentum.
Context
- → Eurozone inflation (07:45) — Actual: 2.40% (Forecast: 2.50%, Previous: 2.20%). Slightly below expectations, supporting a mild rally in European bonds and gilts.
- → UK data — Nationwide housing price data released, but no figures provided; no impact on gilts evidenced.
- → News flow — No major UK macro or BoE headlines; conditions appear quiet.
Calendar events
Today's releases
- → EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel (07:45): Actual 2.40% (Forecast: 2.50%, Previous: 2.20%). Slightly softer than expected, helping gilts and EGBs rally.
- → GBP Nationwide Housing Prices: Data released, but no actuals available; no impact on rates.
- → GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech (09:20): Scheduled, but no market-moving headlines reported so far.
Remaining today
- → 10:00 EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel: Forecast 3.20% (Previous: 2.70%)
- → 13:00 EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel: Forecast 2.90% (Previous: 2.90%)
Next 48 hours
- → Mon 2026-06-01 15:00: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 52.6
- → Tue 2026-06-02 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.40%
- → Fri 2026-06-05 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
- → Fri 2026-06-05 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 96K
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 3–5bp lower across the curve this morning, with the front and belly leading the move. This reflects a mild rally in gilts after eurozone inflation came in below forecast and UK news flow remained quiet. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that further moves will depend on upcoming euro inflation prints and any surprises from the BoE or US data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council's IT department.