Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilts are firmer across all key tenors this morning, pointing to a minor upward move for PWLB rates at the upcoming reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.235% (+3bp) — Front end up in line with the curve.
• → 10y: 4.840% (+3bp) — Belly firmer, matching broader move.
• → 30y: 5.538% (+3bp) — Long end also +3bp, no curve twist.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.05% (-1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.38% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.86% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.40% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.49% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs; moves are broad and modest across the curve.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Actual: -0.60% vs Forecast: -0.10% vs Previous: 0.40% (Medium) — Weaker than expected, highlighting housing market softness.
• → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Actual: 1.70% vs Forecast: 2.90% vs Previous: 3.0% (Medium) — Below forecast, further evidence of cooling property prices.
• → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final — Actual: 53.9 vs Forecast: 53.7 vs Previous: 53.7 (Low) — Slightly above expectations, but low impact for gilts.

Still due today

• → 15:00 — USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53 — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Next 48 hours

• → Tue 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.40%
• → Tue 15:00 — USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 6.8M

A steady start to the week; no sharp moves or surprises so far. Further updates after the PM reset as usual.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the housing market were as predictable as the 12:30 reset.