PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher across the curve this morning, with 2–4bp increases led by the 10-year and longer maturities.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 2–4bp across all key tenors, reflecting a modest parallel move.
PWLB edges up as Iran war keeps markets on alert
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.06% | +3bp |
| 3y | 5.23% | +3bp |
| 5y | 5.39% | +3bp |
| 10y | 5.87% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.48% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.27% | +3bp |
Modest parallel upward shift across the curve, with the 10-year leading at +4bp.
WHAT MOVED
- → All maturities up 2–4bp — The move is consistent across the curve, with a slightly larger rise at 10 years.
- → No material curve shape change — The increase is broadly parallel, not favouring any segment.
CONTEXT
- → Nationwide UK house prices (May): -0.60% m/m (forecast -0.10%, prev +0.40%). Down more than expected, reflecting property market pressure.
- → Geopolitical risk remains elevated — Ongoing Iran war continues to drive market caution and higher rates.
- → No major UK macro news flow this morning — Moves are driven by global risk sentiment rather than domestic data.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM: -0.60% (forecast -0.10%, prev +0.40%) — Weaker than expected, but not enough to offset global risk-driven yield moves.
- → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY: 1.70% (forecast 2.90%, prev 3.0%) — Slower annual growth, confirming a cooling property market.
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final: 53.9 (forecast 53.7, prev 53.7) — Slightly above expectations, but not a major market mover.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 53 (prev 52.7) — May add to global rate sentiment if materially above/below forecast.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 2 Jun 10:00: EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.40%
- → Tue 2 Jun 15:00: USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 6.8M
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have moved up 2–4bp across all key maturities at the AM reset, with the 10-year up 4bp and long-dated rates following closely. The move is parallel and reflects ongoing global risk aversion tied to the Iran conflict, not domestic data. If you are planning to transact, be aware that the next reset will again depend on how gilts respond to further geopolitical headlines and US data later today.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.