PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

3 June 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up 4–5bp across the curve, led by the long end, with no single clear driver; expect a notable upward reset at 12:30.

Gilt yields are firmer across all key tenors this morning; PWLB rates are set to rise at the next reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.347% (+4bp) — Front end up, tracking the broader curve.
→ 10y: 4.909% (+5bp) — Belly firmer, matching the move in the long end.
→ 30y: 5.594% (+5bp) — Long end leads, with a clear upward bias.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.15% (unch)
→ 5y: predicted 5.48% (+1bp)
→ 10y: predicted 5.94% (+1bp)
→ 20y: predicted 6.47% (+1bp)
→ 30y: predicted 6.56% (+1bp)
→ 50y: predicted 6.33% (+1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ S&P Global Composite PMI Final — Actual: 49.7 vs Forecast: 48.5 vs Previous: 52.6 — (LOW) — Slightly above forecast but still below 50, indicating contraction.
→ S&P Global Services PMI Final — Actual: 49.3 vs Forecast: 47.9 vs Previous: 52.7 — (LOW) — Marginally better than expected, but also below 50.
→ Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction — Actual: 1.51% vs Previous: 1.46% — (LOW) — Slight uptick in auction yield, limited direct impact.

Still due today

→ 15:00 — USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 53.8 — May influence global rates, but after the 12:30 reset.

Next 48 hours

→ Friday 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
→ Friday 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 85K

Gilt yields are pushing higher across the board; treasurers should expect a firmer PWLB reset at midday.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as predictable as the 12:30 reset.