PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 6–8bp increases across the curve and the 10-year now at 5.93%.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM PWLB rates reset 6–8bp higher across all maturities, marking a notable move up; no single news driver, but broad market sentiment is risk-off.
PWLB curve jumps 6–8bp: risk-off mood drives rates higher across the board
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.15% | +7bp |
| 3y | 5.33% | +8bp |
| 5y | 5.47% | +8bp |
| 10y | 5.93% | +7bp |
| 25y | 6.53% | +6bp |
| 50y | 6.32% | +7bp |
Parallel upward shift: 6–8bp higher across all maturities.
What moved
- → Broad-based rise — All key tenors moved up 6–8bp, with no part of the curve spared.
- → No major curve twist — The move is parallel, not driven by a specific segment.
Context
- → UK Services PMI (Final) — 49.3 (forecast 47.9, previous 52.7): Slightly above forecast but still below 50, indicating contraction; not a clear driver for today's jump.
- → Global risk sentiment — News flow highlights ongoing Middle East tensions and warnings from the OECD about global recession risks if conflict drags on, contributing to a risk-off tone.
- → No single UK macro shock — The move appears to reflect global market nerves rather than a domestic data catalyst.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Final — 49.7 (forecast 48.5, previous 52.6): Slightly better than expected, but still below 50 and not a clear driver for today's rate move.
- → S&P Global Services PMI Final — 49.3 (forecast 47.9, previous 52.7): Marginally above forecast, but still contractionary.
Remaining Today
- → 15:00 USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 53.8 (previous: 53.6)
Next 48 Hours
- → Fri 2026-06-05 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
- → Fri 2026-06-05 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 85K
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset sharply higher this morning, with a parallel 6–8bp jump across all maturities. The 10-year now stands at 5.93%, and the 25-year at 6.53%. There is no single domestic data trigger; the move reflects a global risk-off mood and heightened caution around geopolitical and recession risks. If you have a live transaction window, be aware that the next reset will take its cue from how gilts trade into midday—volatility may persist.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving faster than rates is the coffee queue.