PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates nudged down by 1bp across almost all maturities at the 12:30 reset; little changed overall.
PWLB rates at the PM fix are down 1bp across the curve except for 50y, which is unchanged; little changed from this morning.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.11% (-1bp)
- → 3y: 5.30% (-1bp)
- → 5y: 5.45% (-1bp)
- → 10y: 5.92% (-1bp)
- → 25y: 6.52% (-1bp)
- → 50y: 6.32% (unch)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
No meaningful change from the earlier notice.
CONTEXT
- → Halifax House Price Index (May): MoM -0.10% (forecast 0.10%), YoY 0.50% (forecast 1.0%) — third consecutive monthly decline, indicating continued softness in UK housing.
- → DMP 1Y CPI Expectations: 3.70% (down from 4.0%) — inflation expectations continue to ease.
- → News flow: UK mortgage rates steady at 6.60%; broader market commentary remains focused on global risk and Middle East tensions, but no single clear driver for gilts today.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 13:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate: High impact; payrolls forecast 85K, unemployment 4.30%. US data could influence global rates sentiment.
- → 19:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech: Medium impact; any fresh policy signals will be watched.
- → Monday 00:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY: Forecast -3.0% (prev -3.40%); retail data will give an early read on consumer activity.
A quiet PM reset—rates barely moved, with the market waiting for US jobs data and central bank commentary later today.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every Friday were this uneventful.