Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 4.143% (-3bp) — Modest front-end rally.
• → 10y: 4.889% (-1bp) — Belly slightly firmer.
• → 30y: 5.581% (unch) — Long end stable.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.13% (+1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.45% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.92% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.46% (unch from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.55% (unch from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.32% (unch from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Halifax House Price Index YoY — Actual: 0.50% vs Forecast: 1.0% vs Previous: 0.40% (MEDIUM) — below expectations; signals continued softness in UK housing.
• → Halifax House Price Index MoM — Actual: -0.10% vs Forecast: 0.10% vs Previous: -0.10% (MEDIUM) — below expectations; third consecutive monthly decline.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30% — could affect global rates but unlikely to move gilts before 12:30 reset.
• → 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 85K — after reset; not relevant for 12:30 PWLB.
• → 19:00 — GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech — scheduled after reset; not relevant for 12:30 PWLB.
• → 14:40 — GBP BoE Dhingra Speech — after reset; not relevant for 12:30 PWLB.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Tuesday 00:01 — GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: -3.0%
• → Tuesday 07:00 — EUR Balance of Trade — Forecast: data not available
• → Tuesday 15:00 — USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 3.9M

A steady morning for gilts; no material shift expected for PWLB borrowers at the midday reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather were as stable as the long end today.