PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower across the curve this morning, with moves of 2–4bp at all key maturities.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates fell 2–4bp across all maturities, with no single data point driving the move.
PWLB slips 2–4bp as curve drifts lower on a quiet morning
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.12% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.31% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.46% | -3bp |
| 10y | 5.93% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.53% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.32% | -3bp |
Parallel move lower: all key maturities down 2–3bp.
What Moved
- → Broad-based decline — 2–4bp lower across the curve, with no single tenor standing out.
- → No material curve reshaping — moves are parallel, not driven by a particular segment.
Context
- → Halifax House Price Index (May) — YoY actual 0.50% (forecast 1.0%, previous 0.40%); MoM actual -0.10% (forecast 0.10%, previous -0.10%). Both below expectations, but not dramatically so.
- → News flow light — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines influencing this morning's move.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → Halifax House Price Index YoY — Actual: 0.50% (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.40%). Slightly softer than expected, limited impact on gilts.
- → Halifax House Price Index MoM — Actual: -0.10% (Forecast: 0.10%, Previous: -0.10%). Marginally negative, broadly in line with trend.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
- → 13:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 85K
- → 19:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 10 Jun 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
- → Wed 10 Jun 13:30: USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.40%
- → Wed 10 Jun 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.80%
- → Wed 10 Jun 13:30: USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.90%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset 2–4bp lower across all key maturities this morning, with no single driver in play. The move is modest and broadly parallel, so the curve shape is unchanged. If you are watching for the next reset, keep an eye on US jobs data this afternoon and any signals from the BoE later today, but for now, conditions are calm.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council IT department.