PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up sharply across the curve (+4–5bp), with the 10y at +5bp; no single clear driver, but global risk sentiment is fragile.
Gilt yields have moved notably higher this morning; expect the 12:30 PWLB reset to reflect a material upward adjustment.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.371% (+4bp) — Front-end firmer, matching broader curve move.
- → 10y: 4.941% (+5bp) — Belly up in line with risk-off tone.
- → 30y: 5.619% (+4bp) — Long end also firmer, no curve inversion.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.17% (-1bp from current)
- → 5y: predicted 5.52% (unch from current)
- → 10y: predicted 5.97% (unch from current)
- → 20y: predicted 6.50% (unch from current)
- → 30y: predicted 6.58% (unch from current)
- → 50y: predicted 6.36% (unch from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.
CALENDAR
Releases so far today
No data released so far today.
Still due today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 hours
- → Tue 00:01 — GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: 0.60%
- → Wed 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
- → Wed 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
- → Wed 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.90%
- → Wed 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 4.20%
A firmer start to the week for gilts; keep an eye on US inflation data midweek for the next major steer.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — The only thing moving faster than rates this morning is the coffee disappearing from my desk.