PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 5–7bp increases across the curve as global risk-off sentiment and surging oil prices drive yields up.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 5–7bp across all maturities, led by renewed market volatility and higher energy costs.
PWLB rates surge as oil spikes and global markets wobble
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.18% | +7bp |
| 3y | 5.37% | +7bp |
| 5y | 5.52% | +7bp |
| 10y | 5.97% | +5bp |
| 25y | 6.57% | +5bp |
| 50y | 6.36% | +4bp |
Parallel upward shift across the curve, with the front end and belly leading.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front end and belly — 1y, 2y, 3y, and 5y tenors all rose by +7bp, marking the sharpest move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y tenors up +5bp and +4bp respectively, confirming broad upward pressure.
- → No material curve twist — Moves are relatively uniform, with a slight bias to the short and intermediate maturities.
CONTEXT
- → Oil prices surged — Brent crude jumped 4% overnight, now above $97/bbl, as Iran-Israel hostilities reignited and threatened the Middle East ceasefire.
- → Global equity sell-off — Major stock indices fell sharply, with circuit breakers triggered in Asia and continued weakness in US futures, reflecting risk aversion and inflation concerns.
- → No UK data released yet — No domestic economic releases so far this morning; moves are externally driven.
CALENDAR EVENTS
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 09 Jun 00:01: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: 0.60%
- → Wed 10 Jun 13:30: USD Core/Headline Inflation Rate — Forecast: Core 0.30% MoM / 2.90% YoY; Headline 0.50% MoM / 4.20% YoY
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have jumped 5–7bp across all maturities at the AM reset, with the front end and belly seeing the sharpest moves. The main catalyst is a surge in oil prices and renewed global market volatility following fresh Middle East conflict headlines. No UK data has landed yet, so the move is externally driven. If volatility persists, the next reset could see further adjustment.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — keeping you calm when the market most definitely isn’t.