PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates edged down by 1–2bp across the curve at the 12:10 reset; moves remain modest.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:10 PM reset are down 1–2bp versus the previous notice; little changed overall.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.15% (-1bp)
- → 3y: 5.34% (-2bp)
- → 5y: 5.49% (-2bp)
- → 10y: 5.95% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.55% (-2bp)
- → 50y: 6.34% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild downward shift — The entire curve is 1–2bp lower, with the move slightly more pronounced from 2y out to the long end.
CONTEXT
- → UK data — RICS House Price Balance for June came in at -35% (vs forecast -31%), unchanged from last month; Gilt 2029 auction cleared at 4.42% (up from 4.24% previously).
- → External backdrop — News flow highlights anticipation of the ECB rate decision this afternoon and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but no single clear driver for today's modest move.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 13:15 — ECB interest rate decision (forecast: +25bp to 2.40%); potential for market reaction.
- → Tomorrow 07:00 — UK GDP MoM (forecast: -0.10%), Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production.
PWLB rates are a touch lower at the PM fix, with no major data surprises or single clear catalyst in play.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — The only thing flatter than today's curve is my coffee. Onwards.