Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.348% (-1bp) — Short end slightly firmer.
• → 10y: 4.921% (-2bp) — Belly softens a touch.
• → 30y: 5.602% (-1bp) — Long end marginally lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.15% (-1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.50% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.96% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.49% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.57% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.35% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → RICS House Price Balance — Actual: -35% vs Forecast: -31% vs Previous: -35% (MEDIUM) — In line with previous, showing continued housing softness; minimal direct impact on gilts.
• → Treasury Gilt 2029 Auction — Actual: 4.42% vs Previous: 4.24% (LOW) — Slightly higher yield than previous, but low impact for broader curve.

Still due today

• → 13:15 — ECB Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 2.40% — May influence broader market tone but unlikely to affect 12:30 PWLB reset directly.
• → 13:30 — US PPI MoM — Forecast: 0.70% — Post-reset; not relevant for today's PWLB fix.

Next 48 hours

• → Fri 07:00 — GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
• → Fri 07:00 — GBP GDP 3-Month Avg — Forecast: 0.70%
• → Fri 07:00 — GBP Industrial Production MoM — Forecast: 0.10%
• → Fri 07:00 — GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: -0.20%

PWLB rates are set to edge down slightly at the next reset; otherwise, a routine session so far.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all market days were this straightforward.