PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest upward shift across the curve, with 2–3bp increases at most key maturities.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:30 reset moved 1–3bp higher across the curve; little changed in overall direction, but a mild upward bias is evident.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.06% (+2bp)
- → 3y: 5.23% (+1bp)
- → 5y: 5.39% (+2bp)
- → 10y: 5.86% (+2bp)
- → 25y: 6.47% (+2bp)
- → 50y: 6.27% (+3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild upward move — 1–3bp increases across all key tenors, with the largest shift (+3bp) at 7y, 12y, and 50y.
- → No sharp curve distortion — Moves are broadly parallel, with no single maturity standing out.
CONTEXT
- → UK GDP MoM (Apr): -0.10% actual, matching forecast, after +0.30% in March. First monthly contraction in eight months, with news flow attributing the dip to higher energy costs and Middle East tensions.
- → Manufacturing Production MoM: +0.40% (vs forecast -0.20%), showing resilience despite the broader GDP dip.
- → Market narrative: Oil prices have retreated sharply on US-Iran peace hopes, supporting a rally in European bonds earlier in the day, but the PM PWLB reset reflects only a modest upward move.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 15:00 today: USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel), forecast 46 (prior 44.8). May influence global risk tone but not directly relevant for gilts.
- → Monday 07:00: No GBP high-impact data scheduled; next key UK release is CPI on Wednesday.
A steady end to the week for PWLB rates, with only minor upward pressure—no fireworks, but worth noting the gentle drift higher.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all Fridays were this straightforward.