PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

12 June 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are down sharply across the curve (-6bp to -10bp); the PM PWLB reset is set to reflect a notable move lower.

Gilt yields are lower by 6–10bp at all key tenors; expect a meaningful downward adjustment in the 12:30 PWLB reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.228% (-10bp) — Front-end leads the rally, down double digits.
→ 10y: 4.826% (-9bp) — Belly follows, with broad declines.
→ 30y: 5.519% (-7bp) — Long end also lower, but slightly less pronounced.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.08% (+4bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.39% (+2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.86% (+2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.40% (+2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.49% (+2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.26% (+2bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK GDP MoM -0.10% (Forecast: -0.10%, Prev: 0.30%) — In line with expectations, but confirms a contraction; a negative signal for growth.
→ News: Oil prices have dropped and European bonds are rallying on renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal, supporting lower yields.
→ UK manufacturing production MoM +0.40% (Forecast: -0.20%, Prev: 1.20%) — Above forecast, but not enough to offset the broader risk-off tone.
→ No single domestic data point is driving the move; global risk sentiment and geopolitics are the main factors.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ GDP MoM — -0.10% vs -0.10% vs 0.30% (HIGH) — Confirms contraction, underlines growth concerns for gilts.
→ GDP 3-Month Avg — 0.70% vs 0.70% vs 0.60% (MEDIUM) — In line, signals steady but subdued growth.
→ Industrial Production MoM — 0.0% vs 0.10% vs -0.20% (MEDIUM) — Slightly below forecast, neutral for rates.
→ Manufacturing Production MoM — 0.40% vs -0.20% vs 1.20% (MEDIUM) — Outperforms, but not enough to change the overall tone.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 12:00 — NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — Forecast: 0.70% — Unlikely to move gilts before the 12:30 reset.
→ 15:00 — US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 46 — May influence global risk, but after the PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Wed 07:00 — GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.10%
→ Wed 07:00 — GBP Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
→ Wed 07:00 — GBP Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.60%
→ Wed 19:00 — USD Fed Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%

Strong rally in gilts this morning, with the market focused on geopolitics and growth risks; reset expectations accordingly.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather moved as fast as these yields.