PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are down sharply across the curve (-4bp to -6bp), with the largest moves at the short end, as markets react to the US-Iran peace deal and falling oil prices.
Gilts are rallying across all key tenors this morning, pointing to lower PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.155% (-6bp) — Front-end leads the rally.
- → 10y: 4.796% (-5bp) — Belly follows, risk premium easing.
- → 30y: 5.507% (-2bp) — Long end firmer, but less pronounced.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.00% (+1bp from current)
- → 5y: predicted 5.33% (+1bp from current)
- → 10y: predicted 5.83% (+2bp from current)
- → 20y: predicted 6.37% (+2bp from current)
- → 30y: predicted 6.47% (+2bp from current)
- → 50y: predicted 6.25% (+2bp from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → US-Iran peace deal — News of a ceasefire and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a rally in global bonds and a sharp fall in oil prices.
- → No UK data released — No domestic economic releases so far today; gilts are following global risk sentiment.
CALENDAR
Releases so far today
No data released so far today.
Still due today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 hours
- → Wed 07:00 — GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.0%
- → Thu 07:00 — GBP Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.0%
- → Thu 12:00 — GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
Markets are firmly in risk-on mode after the weekend's geopolitical breakthrough; keep an eye on the inflation data and BoE later this week for the next domestic catalyst.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the gilts are taking a breather after that weekend newsflow.