PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with 5–7bp declines across the curve as markets respond to easing geopolitical risks and falling energy prices.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: Notable 5–7bp drop in PWLB rates across all maturities, driven by relief in global markets following the US-Iran peace deal and sharply lower oil prices.
PWLB rates tumble as oil and risk premiums unwind
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.99% | -7bp |
| 3y | 5.16% | -7bp |
| 5y | 5.32% | -7bp |
| 10y | 5.81% | -5bp |
| 25y | 6.43% | -4bp |
| 50y | 6.23% | -4bp |
Parallel shift lower across the curve, with slightly larger moves at the short end.
What Moved
- → Front-end and belly — 1y to 7y maturities dropped 6–7bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates fell 4bp, lagging the short end but still notable.
- → Curve shape — Moves are broadly parallel, with a mild bull steepening bias.
Context
- → US-Iran peace deal — Global markets are rallying after confirmation of a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sharply reducing geopolitical risk premiums.
- → Oil prices tumble — Brent crude has dropped below $84/bbl, easing inflation concerns and supporting lower yields.
- → No UK data yet — No significant UK economic releases so far today; focus remains on external drivers.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 16 Jun 13:30: USD Building Permits Prel — Forecast: 1.41M
- → Tue 16 Jun 13:30: USD Housing Starts — Forecast: 1.44M
- → Wed 17 Jun 07:00: GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.0%
- → Wed 17 Jun 13:30: USD Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
- → Wed 17 Jun 19:00: USD Fed Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — Notable 5–7bp declines across the PWLB curve this morning reflect a sharp drop in global risk premiums as the US-Iran deal triggers a rally in bonds and a slide in oil prices. Short and medium maturities have seen the largest moves, but all tenors are lower. No UK data has landed yet, so the next reset will depend on whether this risk-on mood persists. If you are watching for further moves, keep an eye on Wednesday's UK inflation print and the Fed decision.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more peace deals than you’ve had Section 151s.