PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

17 June 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are down sharply across the curve (-4bp to -6bp), with the 10y off -6bp; softer-than-expected UK inflation is the clear driver.

Gilts are rallying after UK inflation held steady at 2.8%, below forecast; expect lower PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.113% (-5bp) — Front end firmer after inflation surprise.
→ 10y: 4.736% (-6bp) — Belly leads the rally, matching CPI miss.
→ 30y: 5.455% (-6bp) — Long end follows, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 4.97% (+1bp)
→ 5y: predicted 5.27% (-1bp)
→ 10y: predicted 5.77% (-1bp)
→ 20y: predicted 6.32% (-1bp)
→ 30y: predicted 6.42% (-1bp)
→ 50y: predicted 6.21% (-1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK CPI YoY held at 2.8% (actual 2.8%, forecast 3.0%, prev 2.8%) — Below expectations, easing pressure for near-term BoE hikes and driving the rally.
→ Core CPI YoY at 2.6% (actual 2.6%, forecast 2.7%, prev 2.5%) — Slightly below forecast, reinforcing the softer inflation tone.
→ No major offsetting news — Gilt move is squarely about the inflation data.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Inflation Rate YoY — 2.80% vs 3.0% vs 2.80% — (HIGH) — Below forecast, easing rate hike pressure.
→ Inflation Rate MoM — 0.20% vs 0.40% vs 0.70% — (MEDIUM) — Lower than expected, supports softer inflation narrative.
→ Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.60% vs 2.70% vs 2.50% — (MEDIUM) — Slightly below forecast, reinforces the main CPI message.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:30 — USD Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.50% — Could influence global rates but unlikely to affect PWLB reset directly.
→ 19:00 — USD Fed Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75% — After PWLB reset; relevant for broader market but not for today's fix.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Thu 07:00 — GBP Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.0%
→ Thu 12:00 — GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%

Inflation miss has set the tone; eyes now turn to the BoE tomorrow for confirmation of the market’s dovish read.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every CPI day were this straightforward.