PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower by 3bp across all maturities at the AM fix, following a modest parallel move.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates fell by 3bp at the morning reset, tracking a modest parallel move in gilts after UK inflation data matched last month's reading and came in below forecast.
PWLB nudges lower as inflation holds steady at 2.8%
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.96% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.12% | -3bp |
| 5y | 5.28% | -3bp |
| 10y | 5.78% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.41% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.22% | -3bp |
Parallel 3bp drop across the curve; no material steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Parallel move — All key maturities reset 3bp lower, with no curve distortion.
Context
- → UK CPI YoY (May): 2.80% (forecast 3.0%, previous 2.80%) — inflation held steady and below expectations, easing pressure on gilt yields.
- → Core CPI YoY: 2.60% (forecast 2.70%, previous 2.50%) — slightly above last month but still below forecast.
- → News flow: No major market-moving headlines for gilts or BoE policy this morning.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK CPI YoY (May): 2.80% (forecast 3.0%, previous 2.80%) — below forecast, supporting today's modest drop in rates.
- → UK Core CPI YoY (May): 2.60% (forecast 2.70%, previous 2.50%) — slightly higher than last month but still under forecast.
Remaining Today
- → 13:30: US Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
- → 19:00: US Fed Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → 19:00: US FOMC Economic Projections
- → 19:30: US Fed Press Conference
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 18 Jun 12:00: BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
- → Thu 18 Jun 07:00: UK Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.0%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates reset 3bp lower across all maturities this morning, reflecting a modest parallel move after UK inflation undershot expectations. The next scheduled reset will reflect any further moves in gilts following today's US Fed decision and tomorrow's BoE meeting. If you are considering a transaction, be aware that current rates are slightly below recent levels, but further volatility is possible around upcoming central bank events.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.