Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are firmer across the curve, especially at the front end, so expect a modest upward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 4.080% (+5bp) — Front end leads, short rates up sharply.
• → 10y: 4.770% (+3bp) — Belly firmer, but less pronounced than front.
• → 30y: 5.468% (unch) — Long end steady, curve steepens.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.03% (+1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.33% (+1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.80% (+1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.34% (+1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.43% (+1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.22% (+1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → UK Unemployment Rate — 4.9% actual vs 5.0% forecast vs previous 5.0% — (Medium) — Slightly below expectations; signals some resilience in the labour market.
• → UK Wage Growth — 2.9% actual vs forecast/data not available vs previous not stated — (Medium) — Slower wage growth, noted as lowest in five years; may reinforce BoE on-hold stance.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thu PM — Bank of England Rate Decision — Forecast: Hold at 3.75% — High impact.

Short gilts are leading today's move; keep an eye on the BoE decision for any further direction.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this straightforward.