PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have edged higher at the front end, with modest upward moves across most maturities and a slight dip at the long end.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: modest upward shift in short and medium maturities, with 1y and 2y up +5bp, and minor declines at the longest tenors.
Front-end leads modest rise as PWLB resets; long end softens
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.02% | +5bp |
| 3y | 5.17% | +4bp |
| 5y | 5.32% | +3bp |
| 10y | 5.79% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.41% | unch |
| 50y | 6.21% | -1bp |
Mild bear-steepening: short and medium rates up, long end slightly softer.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end — 1y and 2y up +5bp, leading the move.
- → Belly — 3y and 5y up +4bp and +3bp respectively.
- → Long end — 30y, 40y, and 50y all down -1bp, with 25y unchanged.
CONTEXT
- → UK labour data — Unemployment rate fell to 4.90% (forecast: 5.0%, prev: 5.0%), average earnings incl. bonus steady at 4.40% (forecast: 4.0%), both slightly firmer than expected.
- → News flow — No major macro headlines directly impacting gilts this morning; focus remains on upcoming BoE decision.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → 07:00 UK Unemployment Rate: 4.90% (forecast: 5.0%, prev: 5.0%) — marginally stronger labour market, mildly supportive for gilt yields.
- → 07:00 UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus: 4.40% (forecast: 4.0%, prev: 4.40%) — wage growth steady, above forecast, may reinforce inflation concerns.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision: Forecast 3.75% (prev: 3.75%)
- → 12:00 MPC Meeting Minutes
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Fri 2026-06-19 07:00: UK Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged higher at the short end, with 1y and 2y up +5bp and the belly following. The long end is slightly softer, with 50y down -1bp and 25y unchanged. This morning’s firmer labour data may have contributed to the upward pressure ahead of the BoE decision at noon. If you are watching for the next reset, pay close attention to any market reaction after the MPC outcome.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.