PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

19 June 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up sharply across the curve (+6 to +8bp), with the move led by the long end; political uncertainty and higher-than-expected borrowing are in focus.

Gilt yields are notably higher this morning, pointing to a meaningful upward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.232% (+6bp) — Front end firmer, short rates up.
→ 10y: 4.826% (+7bp) — Belly up, matching the move across the curve.
→ 30y: 5.527% (+8bp) — Long end leads, steepening bias.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.04% (-1bp) from current
→ 5y: predicted 5.39% (+2bp) from current
→ 10y: predicted 5.86% (+2bp) from current
→ 20y: predicted 6.40% (+2bp) from current
→ 30y: predicted 6.48% (+1bp) from current
→ 50y: predicted 6.29% (+2bp) from current

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ UK political uncertainty — Andy Burnham’s by-election win and Labour leadership speculation have unsettled gilt markets, raising risk premiums.
→ Public sector borrowing — May borrowing came in well above expectations (£23.2bn actual vs £19bn forecast), highlighting fiscal pressures.
→ Retail sales surprise — May retail sales rose 1.2% m/m (forecast 0.5%), suggesting resilience in consumer demand.
→ Global backdrop — US Fed hawkishness and ongoing geopolitical events (Iran, oil) remain in the background but are not the main driver today.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Gfk Consumer Confidence — Actual: -23 vs Forecast: -24 vs Previous: -23 (MEDIUM) — Unchanged, little impact on rates.
→ Retail Sales MoM — Actual: 1.20% vs Forecast: 0.50% vs Previous: -1.0% (HIGH) — Stronger than expected, signals consumer resilience.
→ Retail Sales YoY — Actual: 3.20% vs Forecast: 1.90% vs Previous: 0.10% (MEDIUM) — Well above forecast, supports growth outlook.
→ Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY — Actual: 4.60% vs Forecast: 3.30% vs Previous: 1.10% (LOW) — Above expectations, but lower impact.
→ Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM — Actual: 1.20% vs Forecast: 0.40% vs Previous: -0.10% (LOW) — Positive, but not a main driver.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Tue 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 53.4
→ Tue 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 49
→ Tue 08:30 — EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 49

A volatile morning for gilts—PWLB rates are set to reflect this at the next reset; keep an eye on political headlines and upcoming PMI data.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — Even the curve gets jumpy when Westminster does.