PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates moved modestly higher across the curve at the AM reset, with 2–4bp increases from 2y out to 50y; the move is broad but not dramatic.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates rose 2–4bp at the AM fix, with the largest moves at the long end; firmer UK retail sales and higher government borrowing are the main backdrop.
PWLB edges up as strong retail sales and borrowing data keep pressure on rates
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.05% | unch |
| 3y | 5.22% | +2bp |
| 5y | 5.37% | +2bp |
| 10y | 5.84% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.46% | +4bp |
| 50y | 6.27% | +4bp |
Mild parallel shift higher, with slightly larger moves at the long end.
WHAT MOVED
- → Long end leads — 25y and 50y rates rose by 4bp, outpacing the 2–3bp moves in the belly.
- → Short end steady — 1y unchanged; 2y up just 1bp.
- → Broad upward move — All maturities from 2y out saw rates edge higher.
CONTEXT
- → UK retail sales (May) — MoM +1.2% (forecast +0.5%, prev -1.0%); YoY +3.2% (forecast +1.9%, prev +0.1%). Stronger than expected, supporting higher yields.
- → Government borrowing — May net borrowing £23.2bn, well above £19bn forecast, adding to upward pressure on rates.
- → News flow — Market focus remains on UK fiscal outlook and robust consumer data; no major surprises overnight.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Gfk Consumer Confidence (Jun) — Actual: -23 (Forecast: -24, Prev: -23). Slightly less negative than forecast; minimal impact.
- → Retail Sales MoM (May) — Actual: +1.20% (Forecast: +0.50%, Prev: -1.0%). Strong upside surprise, supporting higher yields.
- → Retail Sales YoY (May) — Actual: +3.20% (Forecast: +1.90%, Prev: +0.10%). Well above expectations.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 23 Jun 09:30: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 53.4
- → Tue 23 Jun 09:30: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 49
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have nudged 2–4bp higher at the AM reset, with the long end leading. Stronger-than-expected retail sales and higher government borrowing are the clear drivers behind today's move. If gilt yields remain firm, expect this morning's levels to set the tone for the midday reset. Monitor the live gilt market for any sharp moves ahead of the next fix.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.