PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest downward shift across the PWLB curve at the 12:19 reset, with moves of -2bp to -3bp.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:19 PM reset are down 2–3bp versus the previous notice, with little change to the overall curve shape.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.03% (-3bp)
- → 3y: 5.22% (-2bp)
- → 5y: 5.38% (-2bp)
- → 10y: 5.85% (-2bp)
- → 25y: 6.46% (-2bp)
- → 50y: 6.27% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Mild softening across the curve — All key tenors are down 2bp, except 1y and 30y which are down 3bp.
- → No pronounced curve twist — Moves are uniform, with no material steepening or flattening.
CONTEXT
- → Political news dominates — The resignation of Prime Minister Starmer and Labour leadership uncertainty have driven volatility in sterling and gilts, with markets initially unsettled but stabilising as the day progressed.
- → No major data releases — Only a medium-impact PM Starmer speech at 09:30; no high-impact UK or global economic data released so far today.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (HIGH, forecast: 53.6), Services PMI Flash (HIGH, forecast: 50), and Composite PMI Flash (LOW, forecast: 49.1) all due for the UK.
- → Tomorrow 11:00 — CBI Industrial Trends Orders (MEDIUM, forecast: -35).
Curve softening today is modest and broad-based, with political headlines still the main source of market noise. More direction likely after tomorrow's PMI data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only leadership contests moved as predictably as the PWLB reset.