Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.210% (-4bp) — Front-end leads mild move lower.
• → 10y: 4.818% (-2bp) — Belly slightly softer.
• → 30y: 5.518% (-2bp) — Long end follows, but with less momentum.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.04% (-2bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.39% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.86% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.38% (-2bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.49% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.28% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Prime Minister Starmer Speech — No market-moving content reported — (Medium) — Political context, but no direct gilt impact.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Tue 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 53.6 (High)
• → Tue 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 50 (High)
• → Wed 09:00 — EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 85.6 (High)
• → Thu 07:00 — EUR GfK Consumer Confidence — Forecast: -28 (High)
• → Thu 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.60% (High)
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: -4.70% (High)
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE — Various forecasts (High)

A steady start to the week; keep an eye on tomorrow's PMI releases for the next potential catalyst.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of Monday were as calm as the gilt curve.