PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

23 June 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve (-2bp to -4bp); expect a small downward move in PWLB rates at 12:30.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small downward moves for the PM reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.153% (-4bp) — Front end down, matching broader curve.
→ 10y: 4.769% (-4bp) — Belly also lower, parallel move.
→ 30y: 5.471% (-4bp) — Long end in line with rest of curve.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.00% (-1bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.33% (-1bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.81% (-1bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.35% (-1bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.44% (-1bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.24% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Actual: 53.1 vs Forecast: 53.8 vs Previous: 53.9 (HIGH) — below forecast, suggests some cooling in UK manufacturing.
→ S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Actual: 48.7 vs Forecast: 50.5 vs Previous: 49.3 (HIGH) — missed expectations, signals contraction in services.
→ CBI Industrial Trends Orders — Actual: -45 vs Forecast: -35 vs Previous: -41 (MEDIUM) — weaker than forecast, points to subdued industrial sentiment.
→ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — Actual: 49.4 vs Forecast: 50.6 vs Previous: 49.7 (LOW) — below forecast, indicates weak overall activity.

Still due today

→ 14:55 — BoE Taylor Speech — LOW — unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.
→ 18:30 — BoE Dhingra Speech — LOW — after reset, no impact.

Next 48 hours

→ Tomorrow 09:00 — EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 85.6
→ Thursday 07:00 — EUR GfK Consumer Confidence — Forecast: -27.5
→ Thursday 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.60%
→ Thursday 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: -4.30%
→ Thursday 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE — various forecasts

Curve is gently firmer after softer UK PMIs; no fireworks, but keep an eye on US data later in the week.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this straightforward.