PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with 2–4bp declines seen across the curve and no major macro catalyst in play.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM rates reset 2–4bp lower across all maturities, with no single data release or news event driving the move.
PWLB curve edges down as market shrugs off mixed UK PMIs
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.01% | -2bp |
| 3y | 5.18% | -4bp |
| 5y | 5.34% | -4bp |
| 10y | 5.82% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.43% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.25% | -2bp |
Mild parallel shift lower across the curve; no pronounced steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Front-end and belly — 3y and 5y maturities led the move, both down 4bp.
- → Longer tenors — 10y, 25y, and 50y all down 2–3bp, mirroring the front-end direction.
Context
- → UK S&P Global PMIs (09:30): Manufacturing PMI missed at 53.1 (forecast 53.8, prev 53.9); Services PMI dropped to 48.7 (forecast 50.5, prev 49.3); Composite at 49.4 (forecast 50.6, prev 49.7). Data came in below expectations, especially on services.
- → News flow — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines this morning; broader market coverage is focused on international themes.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash: 53.1 (forecast 53.8, prev 53.9) — Slight miss, but still above 50.
- → S&P Global Services PMI Flash: 48.7 (forecast 50.5, prev 49.3) — Notably weaker than expected, back below 50.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Flash: 49.4 (forecast 50.6, prev 49.7) — Also below expectations, indicating contraction.
Remaining Today
- → 11:00: CBI Industrial Trends Orders — Forecast: -35 (prev -41)
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 24 Jun 09:00: EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 85.6
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates reset 2–4bp lower this morning, with the move broadly parallel across the curve. This reflects a soft patch in UK services data, but no single event is driving the market. If you are watching for a sharper move, keep an eye on the next reset window and any further data surprises. For now, conditions remain orderly and the curve is stable.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.