PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have moved lower across the curve at the AM reset, with reductions of 2–5bp most pronounced in the long end.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB fixed rates reset lower by 2–5bp at 09:28, with the largest moves at 40y (-5bp) and 7–30y (-4bp); no single data or news driver is evident.
PWLB curve softens as long-end leads modest retreat
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.99% | unch |
| 3y | 5.13% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.27% | -3bp |
| 10y | 5.74% | -3bp |
| 25y | 6.35% | -4bp |
| 50y | 6.17% | -4bp |
Parallel shift lower, with the largest moves in the 7–50y sector.
What Moved
- → Long end leads — 40y down 5bp, 25–30y and 7–15y down 4bp, outpacing the front end.
- → Short end steady — 1y unchanged; 2–5y down 1–3bp.
- → No single driver — No major UK data or gilt-specific news released to explain the move.
Context
- → GBP Car Production YoY — Actual: 3.20% (Forecast: -0.50%, Previous: -0.70%). Stronger than expected, but low impact for gilts.
- → EUR GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -29.2 (Forecast: -27.6, Previous: -29.7). Slightly weaker than forecast; limited read-across to UK rates.
- → News flow light — No major UK macro or gilt market headlines; broader market focus on oil price declines and global risk sentiment.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GBP Car Production YoY — Actual: 3.20% (Forecast: -0.50%, Previous: -0.70%). Positive surprise, but not a gilt driver.
- → EUR GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -29.2 (Forecast: -27.6, Previous: -29.7). Slightly weaker than expected.
Remaining Today
- → 11:00 — GBP CBI Distributive Trades (Forecast: -41)
- → 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Forecast: 1.60%)
- → 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (Forecast: -4.50%)
- → 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE (Forecasts: 0.40%/0.60%/0.30%)
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-06-26 13:30: USD Core PCE Price Index — Forecast: 0.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has shifted lower by 2–5bp at the AM reset, with the largest moves in the long end. If you are watching for a window to lock long-term funding, note that the 25–50y rates are now 4bp below yesterday's close. No major UK data or news has driven this move, so watch for any reversal at the next reset if broader markets turn. As always, the live gilt market will determine where the PM fix lands.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing falling faster than oil is your patience for market noise.