Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 4.007% (+1bp) — Slight uptick at the front end.
• → 10y: 4.691% (unch) — Belly holding steady.
• → 30y: 5.387% (+1bp) — Long end nudges higher.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.97% (-2bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.27% (unch from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.74% (unch from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.28% (unch from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.36% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.16% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Car Production YoY — Actual: 3.20% vs Forecast: -0.50% vs Previous: -0.70% (LOW) — Stronger than expected, but low impact for gilts.
• → CBI Distributive Trades — Actual: -54 vs Forecast: -41 vs Previous: -46 (MEDIUM) — Weaker than expected; signals softer retail activity.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Forecast: 1.60% — May influence global rates, but unlikely to impact the 12:30 PWLB reset.
• → 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: -4.50% — After PWLB reset.
• → 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE — Forecasts: 0.40%/0.60%/0.30% — After PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Monday 09:30 — GBP Mortgage Approvals — Forecast: 65.4K
• → Tuesday 07:45 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.40%
• → Tuesday 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 3.40%
• → Tuesday 13:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel — Forecast: 2.90%
• → Tuesday 15:00 — USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7.6M

PWLB rates are set to edge slightly lower or remain flat at the midday reset, with no strong catalyst in play.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — The only thing flatter than today's curve is my coffee. Onwards.