Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.101% (-1bp) — Front end fractionally lower.
• → 10y: 4.703% (-1bp) — Belly slightly softer.
• → 30y: 5.412% (-2bp) — Long end leads modestly lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.96% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.27% (+1bp)
• → 10y: predicted 5.74% (unch)
• → 20y: predicted 6.30% (+1bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.39% (+1bp)
• → 50y: predicted 6.18% (+1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — data not available — (MEDIUM) — housing is a key macro input for UK rates.
• → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — data not available — (MEDIUM) — relevant for economic sentiment.
• → GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Actual: 0.60% vs Forecast: 0.60% vs Previous: 0.10% — (LOW) — in line with expectations; confirms Q1 growth.
• → GDP Growth Rate YoY Final — Actual: 0.90% vs Forecast: 1.10% vs Previous: 0.90% — (LOW) — slightly below forecast; little immediate impact.
• → Business Investment YoY Final — Actual: -1.30% vs Forecast: -1.80% vs Previous: 1.80% — (LOW) — less negative than forecast, but still weak.
• → Business Investment QoQ Final — Actual: 0.90% vs Forecast: 0.70% vs Previous: -3.0% — (LOW) — small positive, but not market-moving.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 11:40 — BoE Breeden Speech — (LOW) — unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Tomorrow 10:00 — EUR Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Forecast: 3.0%
• → Tomorrow 14:00 — USD Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• → Thursday 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 110K
• → Thursday 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%

Curve is drifting gently lower; no sign of volatility or new direction ahead of the PM reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this uneventful.