PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates edged lower at the AM reset, with a parallel move of -1 to -3bp across the curve and no material divergence by tenor.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates fell 1–3bp at the 09:02 AM reset, with a uniform downward shift across all maturities and no standout driver from today's data or news.
PWLB slips 1–3bp: curve drifts lower, no fireworks
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.96% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.11% | -1bp |
| 5y | 5.26% | -2bp |
| 10y | 5.74% | -2bp |
| 25y | 6.36% | -3bp |
| 50y | 6.17% | -3bp |
Parallel move lower across the curve; no material steepening or flattening.
What Moved
- → Curve shift — All key maturities moved down 1–3bp, with the largest declines at the long end (25y, 50y).
- → No divergence — No significant difference between front-end and long-end moves.
Context
- → UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Actual: 0.60% (Forecast: 0.60%, Previous: 0.10%). In line with expectations, no surprise for gilts.
- → UK Business Investment YoY Final — Actual: -1.30% (Forecast: -1.80%, Previous: 1.80%). Slightly less negative than forecast, but not market-moving.
- → News flow — No major UK macro or gilt-specific headlines this morning; conditions appear quiet.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final — Actual: 0.60% (Forecast: 0.60%, Previous: 0.10%). No surprise for gilts.
- → UK Business Investment YoY Final — Actual: -1.30% (Forecast: -1.80%, Previous: 1.80%). Slightly better than forecast, but not a major influence.
Remaining Today
- → 11:40 — BoE Breeden Speech (LOW)
Next 48 Hours
- → Wed 2026-07-02 13:30: USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 110K
- → Wed 2026-07-02 13:30: USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The AM PWLB reset delivered a mild parallel move lower, with rates down 1–3bp across all key maturities. The curve remains stable and there is no evidence of a new directional driver this morning. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that today's data and news have not shifted the narrative. For now, the window remains calm.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the office coffee.