PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest downward shift across the curve, with PWLB rates 2–3bp lower at the PM reset.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:30 PM reset are down 2–3bp across all key maturities; little changed in broader context.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 4.98% (-3bp)
- → 3y — 5.15% (-3bp)
- → 5y — 5.32% (-3bp)
- → 10y — 5.82% (-3bp)
- → 25y — 6.45% (-2bp)
- → 50y — 6.27% (-2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Curve broadly lower — All key maturities reset 2–3bp down versus the previous notice.
- → Front end and belly — 1y to 10y maturities all down 3bp, with slightly smaller moves (-2bp) at the long end.
CONTEXT
- → Eurozone inflation — June flash YoY at 2.8% (vs 3.0% forecast), softer than expected.
- → UK data — Nationwide house prices flat MoM (0.0%), annual pace up to 2.2%; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final at 52.5, below forecast.
- → News flow — UK house prices remain subdued; Eurozone inflation surprise and soft UK PMI may have contributed to the modest downward move.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Today 14:00 — Fed Chair Warsh speech (HIGH, USD).
- → Today 14:00 — BoE Gov Bailey speech (MEDIUM, GBP).
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — BoE Credit Conditions Survey (LOW, GBP).
- → Tomorrow 13:30 — US Non Farm Payrolls (HIGH, USD, forecast 110K).
A modestly softer reset for PWLB rates, with attention now turning to central bank speeches and tomorrow’s US jobs data.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only house prices moved as predictably as the PWLB reset clock.