Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small upward moves across the curve.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.134% (-1bp) — Short end slightly softer.
• → 10y: 4.782% (+1bp) — Belly marginally firmer.
• → 30y: 5.506% (+3bp) — Long end leads with a modest rise.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 4.98% (-3bp) from current
• → 5y: predicted 5.33% (-2bp) from current
• → 10y: predicted 5.83% (-2bp) from current
• → 20y: predicted 6.37% (-3bp) from current
• → 30y: predicted 6.47% (-2bp) from current
• → 50y: predicted 6.27% (-2bp) from current

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Actual: 0.0% vs Forecast: 0.0% vs Previous: -0.60% — (MEDIUM) — Flat reading, no fresh signal for rates.
• → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Actual: 2.20% vs Forecast: 2.40% vs Previous: 1.70% — (MEDIUM) — Slightly below forecast, but annual growth picked up.
• → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final — Actual: 52.5 vs Forecast: 53.1 vs Previous: 53.9 — (LOW) — Slight miss, but not a key market mover.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 14:00 — BoE Gov Bailey Speech — (MEDIUM) — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thu 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 110K
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%

A steady morning for gilts, with only minor curve steepening; PWLB rates are set to edge slightly lower at the next reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only council budgets were as stable as today's gilt curve.