PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — Modest upward move across the curve at the 12:24 reset, with 2–3bp rises at most key tenors.
PWLB fixed rates at the 12:24 PM reset are up 2–3bp across the curve; little changed in overall shape, but the upward drift continues.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.09% (+2bp)
- → 3y — 5.31% (+3bp)
- → 5y — 5.49% (+3bp)
- → 10y — 5.99% (+2bp)
- → 25y — 6.61% (+2bp)
- → 50y — 6.42% (+2bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly — 1y, 3y, and 5y all up 2–3bp, with the 3y and 5y seeing the largest moves.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y both up 2bp, mirroring the general upward bias.
CONTEXT
- → GBP RICS House Price Balance — Released overnight at -33% (vs forecast -30%, prior -34%), showing continued weakness in UK housing sentiment.
- → Geopolitical risk and oil — News flow dominated by renewed US–Iran tensions and associated oil price volatility, with Brent trading close to $79/bbl and WTI near $74/bbl.
- → No single clear driver — No major UK data releases or policy signals directly linked to today’s move; broader risk sentiment and global rates likely in play.
LOOK AHEAD
- → 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales — High impact, forecast 4.2M (prior 4.17M); could influence broader risk sentiment but not directly GBP-linked.
A modest upward reset, with no single clear domestic catalyst—global risk and oil remain the background noise.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for a quiet summer, the market hasn’t got the memo.