PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with all key maturities moving by just 1–2bp lower.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates reset 1–2bp lower across the curve at 09:15, with no material shift in curve shape or direction.
PWLB curve barely budges as markets digest oil shock
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.07% | -1bp |
| 3y | 5.28% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.46% | -2bp |
| 10y | 5.97% | -1bp |
| 25y | 6.59% | -2bp |
| 50y | 6.40% | -3bp |
Mild parallel shift lower; curve shape unchanged.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK RICS House Price Balance — Actual: -33% (Forecast: -30%, Previous: -34%). Slightly weaker than expected, but not market-moving.
- → Oil market volatility — Brent crude briefly surged above $78/bbl on renewed US–Iran tensions, but no direct impact on UK rates evident at this reset.
- → News flow otherwise light — No major UK macro or BoE developments overnight.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → RICS House Price Balance — Actual: -33% (Forecast: -30%, Previous: -34%). Marginally weaker than forecast; no material impact on gilts.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 15:00 USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.2M (Previous: 4.17M)
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 11 Jul 15:00: USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.2M
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are down 1–3bp at the AM reset, with no meaningful change in curve shape or direction. This is a quiet move, offering little new information for borrowers considering timing. The market is digesting recent oil volatility, but so far, UK rates remain steady. Next reset will reflect any further market developments.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving is the coffee queue.