PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates at the PM reset show minimal movement, with only minor changes at the short and ultra-long ends.
The 13:00 PWLB PM reset landed with little changed: a +1bp move at 2y/3y, -1bp at 12y/50y, and all other key tenors unchanged.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.09% (unch)
- → 3y: 5.30% +1bp
- → 5y: 5.47% (unch)
- → 10y: 5.96% (unch)
- → 25y: 6.58% (unch)
- → 50y: 6.38% -1bp
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end — 2y and 3y both up +1bp; 1y unchanged.
- → Long end — 50y down -1bp; 25y unchanged.
- → Curve overall — Moves are minor and localised; the majority of key tenors are flat.
CONTEXT
- → Gilts and global yields — UK 10y gilt yield reported at 4.91% this morning, up +4bp, amid a broad rise in global yields as Middle East tensions escalate and oil prices surge.
- → Macro backdrop — News flow dominated by renewed US-Iran conflict, oil above $79/bbl, and risk-off sentiment in equities; no major UK data releases so far today.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tonight — BoE Pill speech at 19:00 (LOW impact expected).
- → Tomorrow — 00:01: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MEDIUM, forecast 2.90%); 09:00: BoE Gov Bailey speech (MEDIUM).
- → Tomorrow (US) — 13:30: US inflation data (HIGH, YoY forecast 3.90%, previous 4.20%).
A steady PM reset after a volatile morning; markets remain alert to geopolitical risk but the PWLB curve is largely unmoved.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead of the next notice.