PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset higher this morning, with increases of 3–6bp across the curve and the front end leading.
⚠ RATE ALERT — PWLB AM rates rose 3–6bp across all maturities, led by the short end, as gilt yields push higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions and firmer market expectations.
PWLB rates jump at reset as gilts react to Hormuz tensions
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.09% | +6bp |
| 3y | 5.29% | +4bp |
| 5y | 5.47% | +4bp |
| 10y | 5.96% | +3bp |
| 25y | 6.58% | +3bp |
| 50y | 6.39% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift, with the front end leading at +6bp and the long end up 2–3bp.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front-end surge — 1-year rate up 6bp, outpacing the rest of the curve.
- → Belly and long end — 3–5bp higher across 3y to 50y, with the smallest moves at the very long end.
CONTEXT
- → Gilt yields higher — UK 10-year gilt yield reported at 4.91%, up 4bp, as government borrowing costs rise.
- → Geopolitical risk — Renewed US-Iran strikes and reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices up and triggered a risk-off tone in global markets.
- → No UK data yet — No significant UK economic releases so far this morning.
CALENDAR EVENTS
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 10:00: GBP Index-Linked Gilt 2038 Auction (LOW)
- → 19:00: GBP BoE Pill Speech (LOW)
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 14 Jul 00:01: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Forecast: 2.90%
- → Tue 14 Jul 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.90%
- → Tue 14 Jul 13:30: USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.90%
- → Tue 14 Jul 13:30: USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
- → Tue 14 Jul 13:30: USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: -0.10%
- → Tue 14 Jul 15:00: USD Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
- → Wed 15 Jul 13:30: USD PPI MoM — Forecast: 0.20%
- → Wed 15 Jul 15:00: USD Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
- → Thu 16 Jul 07:00: GBP GDP MoM — Forecast: 0.10%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset sharply higher this morning, with the 1-year up 6bp and 10–50 year tenors up 2–4bp. The move is broad-based, with the front end leading and the entire curve now at or near new cycle highs. The main driver is a renewed surge in gilt yields as markets react to escalating US-Iran tensions and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If gilt yields remain elevated, expect the next PWLB reset to reflect any further moves.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — keeping you sharper than a Hormuz bottleneck on a Monday morning.