PWLB briefing

End of Day Wrap-Up

·

UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, driving a modest decline in PWLB rates as the market digested a surge in global bond yields linked to escalating geopolitical risks and higher oil prices.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

  • 2y: 4.48% (+7bp) — front-end led the move higher.
  • 10y: 5.11% (+7bp) — belly saw matching upward pressure.
  • 30y: 5.79% (+5bp) — long end also rose, but less than the front.
  • 50y: 5.32% (+3bp) — gains moderated at the ultra-long end.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

Tenor Rate Change
1y 5.25% -2
5y 5.64% -2
10y 6.10% -2
25y 6.70% -1
50y 6.49% -2

WHAT DROVE TODAY

  • Escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $100, triggering renewed inflation concerns and a global bond sell-off.
  • ECB held rates steady (Deposit Facility 2.25%, as expected), but market focus remained on inflation risks from energy prices.

WHAT THIS MEANS

  • Despite a notable rise in gilt yields, PWLB rates ended the day slightly lower across all key maturities.
  • The cost of new local authority borrowing via PWLB is marginally cheaper than yesterday, with reductions of 1–2bp depending on tenor.
  • Volatility in underlying gilts remains elevated, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to geopolitical and inflation developments.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

  • Fri 00:01: GfK Consumer Confidence (Forecast: -21)
  • Fri 07:00: Retail Sales MoM (Forecast: -0.30%)
  • Fri 09:30: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Forecast: 52)

Markets remain focused on geopolitical risks and inflation signals as the week draws to a close.

This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.

All briefings for 23 July 2026 · July 2026 archive · All PWLB briefings