PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, driving a modest decline in PWLB rates as the market digested a surge in global bond yields linked to escalating geopolitical risks and higher oil prices.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
- → 2y: 4.48% (+7bp) — front-end led the move higher.
- → 10y: 5.11% (+7bp) — belly saw matching upward pressure.
- → 30y: 5.79% (+5bp) — long end also rose, but less than the front.
- → 50y: 5.32% (+3bp) — gains moderated at the ultra-long end.
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.25% | -2 |
| 5y | 5.64% | -2 |
| 10y | 6.10% | -2 |
| 25y | 6.70% | -1 |
| 50y | 6.49% | -2 |
WHAT DROVE TODAY
- → Escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $100, triggering renewed inflation concerns and a global bond sell-off.
- → ECB held rates steady (Deposit Facility 2.25%, as expected), but market focus remained on inflation risks from energy prices.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → Despite a notable rise in gilt yields, PWLB rates ended the day slightly lower across all key maturities.
- → The cost of new local authority borrowing via PWLB is marginally cheaper than yesterday, with reductions of 1–2bp depending on tenor.
- → Volatility in underlying gilts remains elevated, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to geopolitical and inflation developments.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Fri 00:01: GfK Consumer Confidence (Forecast: -21)
- → Fri 07:00: Retail Sales MoM (Forecast: -0.30%)
- → Fri 09:30: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Forecast: 52)
Markets remain focused on geopolitical risks and inflation signals as the week draws to a close.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.