PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed at the AM reset, with moves of just +1 to +2bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — AM reset: PWLB rates edge 1–2bp higher across most maturities, reflecting a steady gilt market after strong UK data.
PWLB barely budges as UK data surprises to the upside
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.26% | +1bp |
| 3y | 5.48% | +1bp |
| 5y | 5.66% | +2bp |
| 10y | 6.11% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.70% | unch |
| 50y | 6.48% | -1bp |
A near-parallel shift: short and medium rates up 1–2bp, long end flat to -1bp.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
Context
- → UK retail sales (June) — MoM +1.0% (forecast -0.3%, prev +1.2%); YoY +4.2% (forecast +2.3%, prev +3.5%). Stronger than expected, supporting yields.
- → UK PMI flash (July) — Manufacturing 52.8 (forecast 52, prev 52.5); Services 51.8 (forecast 49.4, prev 48.8); Composite 52.1 (forecast 49.7, prev 49.3). All above expectations.
- → News flow — No major new macro or gilt-specific headlines this morning; focus remains on data.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -17 (forecast -21, prev -23). Sentiment improved, but little direct impact on gilts.
- → Retail Sales MoM — Actual: +1.0% (forecast -0.3%, prev +1.2%). Strong upside surprise, supportive for yields.
- → S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Actual: 52.8 (forecast 52, prev 52.5). Above expectations.
- → S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Actual: 51.8 (forecast 49.4, prev 48.8). Above expectations.
- → S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — Actual: 52.1 (forecast 49.7, prev 49.3). Above expectations.
Remaining Today
Nothing further scheduled today.
Next 48 Hours
- → Mon 27 Jul 09:00: EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 85.1
- → Mon 27 Jul 13:30: USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: 2.30%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve is essentially unchanged, with only minor upward moves of 1–2bp following stronger-than-expected UK retail sales and PMI data. The market remains steady, with no material shift in borrowing costs at this reset. Unless gilts move sharply before the PM fix, expect similar conditions to persist.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after more resets than a council laptop.