PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with moves of 5–8bp across the curve and the 10-year now above 6.10% for the first time in this cycle.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM PWLB rates reset 5–8bp higher across all maturities, led by the short end, as global bond markets react to surging oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.
PWLB rates surge as oil shock and inflation fears drive gilt yields higher
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.27% | +8bp |
| 3y | 5.49% | +5bp |
| 5y | 5.66% | +5bp |
| 10y | 6.12% | +4bp |
| 25y | 6.71% | +2bp |
| 50y | 6.51% | +3bp |
Parallel shift higher, with the largest moves at the short end and a persistent steep curve.
What moved
- → Front end leads — 1-year PWLB up 8bp, 2–5y up 5–6bp, reflecting a sharp move in short gilts.
- → Belly and long end — 10–50y up 2–4bp, with the 10y now above 6.10% and 25y/50y at new cycle highs.
- → Curve steepening — Short-end moves outpace long-end, steepening the curve further.
Context
- → Oil price shock — Brent crude surged to $97 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, intensifying inflation fears and driving global bond yields higher.
- → No UK data yet — No significant UK releases so far this morning; market is reacting to global macro shocks.
- → Upcoming ECB decision — Eurozone rates and press conference later today may add further volatility.
Calendar events
Today's releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining today
- → 11:00 — GBP CBI Business Optimism Index (Forecast: -40)
- → 11:00 — GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Forecast: -40)
- → 13:15 — EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 2.40%)
- → 13:15 — EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Forecast: 2.25%)
- → 13:45 — EUR ECB Press Conference
Next 48 hours
- → Fri 2026-07-24 07:00: GBP Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: -0.30%
- → Fri 2026-07-24 09:30: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 52
- → Fri 2026-07-24 09:30: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 49.4
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have reset sharply higher this morning, with the 1-year up 8bp and the 10-year now at 6.12%. The move is broad-based, driven by a spike in oil prices and renewed global inflation concerns. Short-dated borrowing is most affected, but all maturities are at or near new highs for this cycle. If you are planning to transact at the next reset, be aware that volatility remains elevated and further moves are possible as the day unfolds.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every oil shock, curve tantrum, and budget surprise.