Afternoon Rate Update

PWLB fixed rates reset lower at 12:13, with 1–15 year tenors down 4–6bp and the long end 3–4bp; the move reflects softer-than-expected UK labour data and a weak payrolls figure.

PWLB PM SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 5.50% (-5bp)
• → 3y: 5.82% (-6bp)
• → 5y: 5.99% (-6bp)
• → 10y: 6.37% (-4bp)
• → 25y: 6.86% (-4bp)
• → 50y: 6.64% (-4bp)

WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING

• → Front end and belly led the move — 1–7y tenors fell 5–6bp, with the 5y and 3y both -6bp.
• → Long end softer — 20–50y down 3–4bp, with 25y and 50y both -4bp.

CONTEXT

• → UK jobs and wage data — Unemployment steady at 4.9% (in line), but payrolls fell -26K (vs -4K forecast), and average earnings incl. bonus slowed to 3.9% (prev. 4.2%), reinforcing a softer labour market tone.
• → Gilt auctions — 2029 and 2040 gilt auctions cleared at higher yields (4.82% and 5.64% respectively), but the main market focus was on the jobs data.
• → News flow — Commentary highlights a weakening UK labour market and easing wage pressures, with some focus on stagflation risks as oil prices remain elevated.

LOOK AHEAD

• → 16:00 BoE Wilkins speech — Low impact expected.
• → Tomorrow 07:00: UK inflation (YoY) — Forecast 3.1% (prev. 2.9%), key for BoE and rate expectations.
• → Tomorrow 13:30/19:00: US retail sales and Fed decision — US data and FOMC outcome may influence global rates sentiment.

A clear downward reset for PWLB rates this afternoon, with the market digesting a weaker UK jobs print and softer wage growth ahead of tomorrow's inflation figures.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only payrolls moved as smoothly as the PWLB reset clock.