PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset sharply higher this morning, with 5–8bp increases across the curve and the 10-year now at 6.41%.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates rose 5–8bp across all key maturities, led by the 3–10 year sector, as gilt yields responded to persistent inflation and labour market pressures.
PWLB curve jumps: 10y at 6.41%, inflation and jobs data keep pressure on
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.55% | +6bp |
| 3y | 5.88% | +8bp |
| 5y | 6.05% | +8bp |
| 10y | 6.41% | +6bp |
| 25y | 6.90% | +4bp |
| 50y | 6.68% | +3bp |
Parallel upward shift: 5–8bp rises led by the 3–10 year sector, long end less pronounced.
WHAT MOVED
- → Front and belly surge — 3y and 5y tenors up +8bp, 10y +6bp, marking the sharpest moves.
- → Long end less aggressive — 25y and 50y up +4bp and +3bp respectively, lagging the short and intermediate sectors.
- → Parallel shift — No major curve twist, but the magnitude of the move is notable across all maturities.
CONTEXT
- → UK wage growth slows but remains elevated — Average earnings including bonus rose 3.9% y/y (in line with forecast, but only slightly down from 4.2% prior), keeping inflation risks alive.
- → Labour market remains tight — Unemployment rate steady at 4.9% (forecast 5.0%), and claimant count change higher than expected at +27.8K.
- → News flow dominated by stagflation fears — Oil above $107/bbl and warnings of employment cost shocks add to the pressure on UK rates.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → Unemployment Rate (07:00): Actual 4.90% (Forecast 5.0%, Previous 4.90%) — unchanged, but below forecast, signalling continued labour tightness.
- → Average Earnings incl. Bonus (07:00): Actual 3.90% (Forecast 3.90%, Previous 4.20%) — as expected, but still well above target-consistent levels.
- → Employment Change (07:00): Actual 67K (Forecast 70K, Previous 83K) — slightly below forecast, but not enough to ease market concerns.
REMAINING TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Wed 2026-09-16 07:00: UK Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.10%
- → Thu 2026-09-17 12:00: BoE Interest Rate Decision — Forecast: 3.75%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has shifted up 5–8bp at the AM reset, with the 10-year now at 6.41% and the 5-year at 6.05%. Front and belly tenors saw the sharpest moves, reflecting persistent inflation and wage pressures. If you are watching for the next reset, keep an eye on tomorrow’s inflation data and Thursday’s BoE decision—both are likely to set the tone for the next move.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing moving faster than rates is the Chancellor’s inbox.